MONTHLY MARKET REVIEW

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market review

Market conditions across the world deteriorated in March (compared to February) on the back of the looming trade war between the United States and China. The Donald Trump Administration had slammed a potential $50 billion tariff hikes on Chinese imports into the United States as the Administration accused China of intellectual theft and unfair trade practices. China is expected to respond in equal intensity.

In the same vein, watchers of the international economy believe that the days of easy money in the United States and Europe may gradually be coming to an end as Central Banks soft-pedalled on monetary stimulus to reduce government’s debt. The Federal Reserve Bank increased its interest rates to 1.75% with a promise of another increase to 2% later in year and to 2.5% later in 2019 and 3% in 2020 while the European Central bank’s rate remain unchanged at -0.40%.

The Nigerian market, though an insignificant component of the global stock portfolio, also witnessed a slight dip in March (3.58%) compared to February despite a modest bump in oil price and the reactivation of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The Senate confirmed the two deputy governors earlier nominated by the President as well as other members of the MPC.

However, the decline in the All Share Index was not sufficient to take the market below the level where it kicked off in January. Analysts believe that though the Nigerian General Elections are still a year away, investors, being usually circumspect of the Nigerian political conditions around the election period, had begun to review their portfolios to prepare for the days ahead. Also, the inability of the government to find a lasting solution to the security situation in some parts of the country (particularly the Middle Belt) is believed to be causing some jitters around the investment community.

 NIGERIAN MONEY MARKET
CBN Exchange Rates (USD to Naira) 305.15 305.40 305.00 – 0.25 – 0.08 0.15 0.05
CBN Exchange Rates (Pound to Naira) 429.53 422.77 410.50 6.76 1.60 19.03 4.50
CBN Exchange Rates (Euro to Naira) 375.94 373.17 364.74 2.77 0.74 11.20 3.00
CBN Exchange Rates (Yuan to Naira) 48.52 48.29 46.73 0.23 0.47 1.79 3.71
Interbank Exchange Rates (USD to Naira) 305.65 305.90 306.05 – 0.25 – 0.08 – 0.40 – 0.13
Interbank Exchange Rates (Pound to Naira) 430.23 423.46 411.18 6.77 1.60 19.05 4.50
Interbank Exchange Rates (Euro to Naira) 376.56 373.78 365.33 2.78 0.74 11.23 3.00
Interbank Exchange Rates (Yuan to Naira) 48.60 48.37 46.81 0.23 0.47 1.79 3.70
Parallel Market Exchange Rates (USD to Naira) 362.00 363.00 363.00 – 1.00 – 0.28 – 1.00 – 0.28
Parallel Market Exchange Rates (Pound to Naira) 508.00 502.00 483.00 6.00 1.20 25.00 4.98
Parallel Market Exchange Rates (Euro to Naira) 443.00 443.00 425.00 18.00 4.06
NIGERIAN CAPITAL MARKET
29/3/2018 28/2/2018 29/12/2017 Month on Month Change % Change YTD Change
% Change
Stocks
Dangote Cement (N) 260.00 269.80 230.00 – 9.80 – 3.63 30.00 11.12
Nigerian Breweries (N) 130.00 135.90 134.90 – 5.90 – 4.34 – 4.90 – 3.61
Guaranty Trust Bank (N) 44.70 49.00 40.75 – 4.30 – 8.78 3.95 8.06
Nestle Plc (N) 1,380.00 1,442.00 1,555.99 – 62.00 – 4.30 – 175.99 – 12.20
Zenith Bank (N) 29.30 31.90 25.64 – 2.60 – 8.15 3.66 11.47
WAPCO (N) 45.30 51.90 44.89 – 6.60 – 12.72 0.41 0.79
Seplat (N) 665.10 660.50 626.22 4.60 0.70 38.88 5.89
ETI (N) 16.35 20.35 17.00 – 4.00 – 19.66 – 0.65 – 3.19
Unilever Plc (N) 55.00 51.20 41.00 3.80 7.42 14.00 27.34
Stanbic IBTC (N) 48.50 47.50 41.50 1.00 2.11 7.00 14.74
Access Bank Plc (N) 11.05 13.00 10.45 – 1.95 – 15.00 0.60 4.62
Forte Oil (N) 42.00 44.90 43.48 – 2.90 – 6.46 – 1.48 – 3.30
UBA (N) 11.75 12.70 10.30 – 0.95 – 7.48 1.45 11.42
Guinness Plc (N) 104.00 104.90 94.00 – 0.90 – 0.86 10.00 9.53
Total (N) 249.00 232.00 229.95 17.00 7.33 19.05 8.21
First Bank (N) 12.50 11.55 8.80 0.95 8.23 3.70 32.03
7Up (N) 101.97 101.97 101.97
Union Bank (N) 6.70 6.50 7.80 0.20 3.08 – 1.10 – 16.92
Dangote Sugar (N) 21.80 21.55 20.00 0.25 1.16 1.80 8.35
PZ (N) 23.45 24.15 20.60 – 0.70 – 2.90 2.85 11.80
Equity Market Capitalization (N) 14,992,963,553,548.10 15,549,792,393,545.20 13,609,474,245,109.40 – 556,828,839,997.10 – 3.58 1,383,489,308,438.70 8.90
Bond Market Capitalization (N) 9,858,903,094,871.72 9,713,889,103,207.72 9,291,305,749,245.00 145,013,991,664.00 1.49 232,753,524,098.56 2.45
All Share Index 41,504.51 43,330.54 38,243.19 – 1,826.03 – 4.21 3,261.32 7.53
 CBN POLICY RATES
Monetary Policy Rate (%) 14.00 14.00 14.00
Liquidity Ratio (%) 30.00 30.00 30.00
Cash Requirement Ratio (%) 22.50 22.50 22.50
 Macro Variables
GDP Growth Rate (%) 1.40 1.40 1.40
Unemployment Rate (%) 18.80 18.80 18.80
PMS Price (N) 145.00 145.00 145.00
Diesel Price (N) 205 200.00 195.00 5.00 2.50 10.00 5.00
Kerosene Price (N) 215 210.00 240.00 5.00 2.38 – 25.00 – 11.90
Oil Price Per Barrel ($) 69.10 65.98 60.09 3.12 4.73 9.01 13.66
International Capital Market
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 24,147.00 25,084.00 24,719.22 – 937.00 – 3.74 – 572.22 – 2.28
S & P 500 2,643.00 2,720.00 2,673.61 – 77.00 – 2.83 – 30.61 – 1.13
FTSE 6,993.50 7,201.50 7,687.77 – 208.00 – 2.89 – 694.27 – 9.64
CAC40 5,167.30 5,320.49 5,312.56 – 153.19 – 2.88 – 145.26 – 2.73
Dax 12,096.73 12,435.85 12,917.64 – 339.12 – 2.73 – 820.91 – 6.60
Nikkei 21,460.00 21,791.78 22,764.94 – 331.78 – 1.52 – 1,304.94 – 5.99
International Money Market
% % %
LIBOR Rate 1night -0.43471 -0.44143 0.47235 0.01 – 1.52 – 0.91 – 193.44
7days -0.42343 -0.42271 0.47975
30days -0.40657 -0.40257 0.49306 – 0.00 0.99 – 0.90 223.47
90days -0.37071 -0.37929 0.52125 0.01 – 2.26 – 0.89 235.17
365days -0.24557 -0.25429 0.76725 0.01 – 3.43 – 1.01 398.29
Federal Reserve Bank Rate 1.7500 1.5 1.5 0.25 16.67 0.25 16.67
European Central Bank Rate – 0.4000 -0.4 -0.4
 Cross Rates
USD to Pound Sterling 1.4015 1.3747 1.3503 0.03 1.95 0.05 3.72
USD to Euro 1.2324 1.2187 1.2003 0.01 1.12 0.03 2.63
Pound to Euro 0.8793 0.8865 0.1537 – 0.01 – 0.81 0.73 81.85
Euro to Pound 1.1372 1.1280 0.8889 0.01 0.82 0.25 22.01